Top Rookie Wide Receivers Dynasty Fantasy Football (Version 1)
4/15/2022
Introduction- These rankings were determined by making data thresholds and weighting certain factors. The data thresholds were determined by looking at the data of former top 20 fantasy wide receivers. The players who fit the weighted thresholds the best will be ranked the highest. Some of the metrics found were found on Pro Football Focus or Player Profiler. These rankings are not final and will change. NFL draft capital and landing spot is a huge weighted data point in the model. For now, I used projected NFL draft capital in the model and left the landing spots blank. All definitions for metrics will be at the bottom of the article. An excel sheet with all of the data will also be attached to this article at the bottom.
Disclaimer- This list is not who my top prospects in the draft are. This is solely who I think will be the most productive in dynasty fantasy football.
1. Drake London
College- USC
Age- 20.7
Height- 6'4
Weight- 219
40 Yard Dash- N/A
Team Target Share- 27.3
College Dominator- 34.9
Breakout Age- 18.1
Draft Capital- Mid 1st
Yards/Target- 8.74
Yards/Catch- 12.318
Route Running- 9
Drake London is an elite WR prospect. He dominated in college at USC while being the youngest WR in this class at only 20.7 years old. Drake London is a physical wide receiver with the size to back it up. London is 6'4 219 pounds. Another factor that makes London stand out is his breakout age being 18.1 years old. As a true freshman, London broke out with 70 yards a game and 5 TDs. This was while sharing the field with two solid NFL receivers who were much older (Amon Ra St Brown and Michael Pittman). Breakout age is a great factor to show the talent of wide receivers. If a player breakout early that means they play above their competition and can be used to project, they have not yet reached their peak. London is tied for the best route running grade at 9/10. He was above average in his college target share. Finally, he will be a mid to early first-round pick. London will likely join a team as their WR 1 or 2. This will give him plenty of opportunities to succeed at the next level. The only question marks for London in this model are the yards per target, yard per catch, and unknown 40 time. I am not worried about the low yards per target and catch for a guy like London since he does have elite size and can be used in shorter route roles. He has experience in the slot, and I can imagine teams will move him all around to create miss matches. For the 40 time, this is not known with London as he did not run at the combine. If I were to guess, he would make our threshold of a 4.5 40 or at least close to it. London is a true athlete. In fact, as a freshman, he played on USC's basketball team too. I am not worried about him being slow since even if he is below average in speed, he will make up for it with his athleticism. I project London to be a future 100 catch receiver and have one of the best red zone presence in the league. Do not panic if it takes London some time to figure out the NFL. He is the youngest wide receiver in this class and with his tools has the most potential.
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NFL Comparison- Mike Evans
2. Treylon Burks
College- Arkansas
Age- 22
Height-6'2
Weight- 225
40 Yard Dash- 4.55
Team Target Share- 31.3
College Dominator- 45.9
Breakout Age- 20.5
Draft Capital- Mid/Late First
Yards/Target-12
Yards/Catch- 16.7
Route Running- 4
Treylon Burks dominated at Arkansas. His production numbers in the model gave him a huge boost. He did this all while playing in one of the hardest conference in college football in the SEC. This makes me believe he is a pro ready wide receiver. Burks has the size and athleticism to command targets in an NFL offense. Burks will also get solid draft capital likely landing in the late first. In many mocks Burks is getting amazing landing spots of the Packers and Chiefs in the late first. This could help him climb up even more in our model. Two metrics that Burks struggled on were break out age, 40 yard dash, and route running. Burks breakout age was later at only 20.5. However Burks was always the top receiver on his college teams. As a freshman he was not too productive but was the best on his team. Then as the offense around him got better Burks broke out. Then for the 40 yard dash time I am not worried at all. This is about an average time. He may not be as fast as other guys but Burks does not need the speed as much since he is a big physical receiver. Finally, Burks scored a 4 on his route running grade. This to me is a big concern. This could be a factor that makes Burks not translate as well to the NFL. This factor is difference maker between Burks and Drake London. However with the profile of Treylon Burks he hits almost every other threshold and he still has time to improve his route running. Burks can overcome poor route running with his size, athleticism, and catching ability. It will be interesting to see where Burks goes and if that adjusts his spot on the rankings.
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NFL Comparison- AJ Brown
3. Garrett Wilson
College- Ohio State
Age- 21.7
Height- 6'0
Weight- 183
40 Yard Dash- 4.38
Team Target Share- 26.3
College Dominator- 29.4
Breakout Age- 20.1
Draft Capital- Early/Mid First
Yards/Target- 10.27
Yards/Catch-15.1
Route Running- 8
Garrett Wilson might be the safest receiver in dynasty drafts. He has elite speed. Great college production while he played with elite other NFL receivers. He played alongside Chris Olave who is going to go in the first round in this draft and Jaxon Smith-Njigba who is going to be a high first-round pick in next year's draft. Olave is a very polished reciever who has no real flaws except for his a skinny frame. On top of this all Olave is projected to be the first reciever selected in the NFL draft. In this model he was neck and neck with Burks and London. Those two gained the edge over Wilson since they have more prototypical wide reciever 1 builds but the gap is no far. This draft class reminds me of the 2020 NFL draft with recievers. In this draft CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy were better overall recievers then Henry Ruggs. Henry Ruggs however was selected before both since NFL offenses valued the speed he had. I would say that the same is happening with Garrett Wilson were NFL teams are valuing him more since the speed he adds to the offense. If Wilson gets the right landing spot with draft capital he could easily get a bump in the rankings. For now he is a safe pick and if he is the first reciever selected in the NFL draft it would not be wild to take him over London or Burks in dynasty. These three recievers are my tier 1 recievers prior to the draft. I only anticipate on moving players out of this tier not into it after the draft. I see Wilson if used in a creative offense could be similar to Diontae Johnson. If he is not used correctly he could be a guy only there to stretch the field like Mecole Hardman. Either way he will still have some fantasy value.
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NFL Comparison- Mecole Hardman (Floor), Diontae Johnson (Ceiling)
4. Chris Olave
College- Ohio State
Age- 21.8
Height- 6'0
Weight- 187
40 Yard Dash- 4.39
Team Target Share- 26
College Dominator-31.8
Breakout Age- 19.2
Draft Capital- Late First
Yards/Target- 9.08
Yards/Catch-14.4
Route Running- 9
Chris Olave is an intersting player in this draft. He is very similar to Garrett Wilson in all measured data. The only difference between the two which gives Wilson the advantage is that Olave will be drafted later. Olave may have the best route running in this class with a score of 9. He has elite speed with a 4.39 40 yard dash. He is average height and slightly below average weight. Olave is a player who can be plugged into any offense in the NFL and will make an impact day 1 whether it is as a deep threat or possesion reciever. Olave has the tools to be a WR 1 in the NFL if he gets the right fit. He could be just a speed threat with some upside or he could be utilized as a featured reciever in a succesfull offense. He is the only player in my tier 2 for rankings. If only he had slightly higher draft capital I would have him in tier 1.
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NFL Comparison- Quez Watkins (Floor), Calvin Ridley(Ceiling)
5. Jameson Williams
College- Alabama
Age- 21
Height- 6'2
Weight- 179
40 Yard Dash- N/A
Team Target Share- 20.7
College Dominator- 31.1
Breakout Age- 20.4
Draft Capital- Mid/Late First
Yards/Target- 13.32
Yards/Catch- 19.9
Route Running- 7
Jameson Williams took over college football in 2021. He dominated for Alabama out of nowhere. Then his season came to an unfortunate end when he tore his acl. Williams due to his success this year jumped up everyones dynasty rankings. Most people have him top 5 and some even in the top 3. I am placing him at 5 but I believe with using my model and context he is being overrated. In the model we can see that Williams hits most key attributes. He is light but for the style he plays I can give that a pass. I think the main problem with Williams is that he only has one year to show for and is coming off of a big injury. Williams in his first two seasons played at Ohio State. In his career at Ohio State he could never get on the field. This is because he was playing with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Then Williams had to transfer from Ohio State to Alabama since he could not get playing time. Using this context I cannot say that Williams is better then Olave and Wilson who are ranked 3 and 4 on my rankings. His profile may be similar to them however they both played over him so it shows they are likely more talented. Williams is still very talented and has some huge homerun play ability. Given his small size and lack of short route running ability I think he will be used as a primary deep threat option. This is great for an NFL team but for fantasy this will not secure him a consistent target share.
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NFL Comparison- Robby Anderson
6. Jahan Dotson
College- Penn State
Age- 22
Height- 5'11
Weight- 178
40 Yard Dash- 4.43
Team Target Share- 32.5
College Dominator- 44.3
Breakout Age- 20.5
Draft Capital- Late 1st/Mid 2nd
Yards/Target- 9.5
Yards/Catch- 13.7
Route Running- 8
Jahan Dotson is another all around prospect. Dotson at Penn State accumilated for a ton of their offensive production. He has big play ability and is one of the best players with the ball in his hands in this draft. Dotson has been climbing the ranks in mock drafts as we approach the draft. His metrics hit all of the thresholds except for size. In the model Dotson did struggle and I had to manually give him a boost. Dotson's talent cannot be measured fully with my model. Reading scouting reports he is seen as having some of the best hands in this class. Dotson is also always in the right place and ready to make big plays. Dotsons QB play while at Penn State has not been the best. If he is given a role in the slot for an NFL team with a QB who trusts him he could be a steal in this draft. He is landing spot dependent. Although his cieling is really high if a team decides to feature him in the slot. At best I could see being similar toTyler Lockett if used to stretch field or comaparable to Emmanual Sanders if used in slot or in short field role. If he is never able to figure out how to play physical he could compare to a Travis Benjamin.
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NFL Comparison- Travis Benjamin (Floor), Tyler Lockett/Emmanual Sanders (Ceiling)
7. Skyy Moore
College- Western Michigan
Age- 21.6
Height- 5'10
Weight- 191
40 Yard Dash- 4.41
Team Target Share- 39.5
College Dominator- 44.8
Breakout Age- 20
Draft Capital- Early 2nd/Late 3rd
Yards/Target- 9.5
Yards/Catch- 13.7
Route Running-8
Skyy Moore checks most boxes in his profile. He has speed, college production, great route running, and average size. Skyy Moore has a huge upside since has all of the measurables we want in our data. Skyy Moore in college played with NFL wide receiver Dwayne Eskridge. While Eskridge was 24 and Skyy Moore was only 20 Moore was able to produce similar products. Both receivers have almost identical physical profiles. Although Eskridge has not been a great NFL player so far, it is impressive that Skyy Moore as a 20-year-old produced similar production. Eskridge went in the 2nd round of the NFL draft. Mock drafts have Skyy Moore going early 2nd to late 3rd. I think that since Skyy Moore is from the same offense as Eskridge with the same attributes and production Eskridge has to be his floor. Although with Skyy Moore is only 21.6 years old so he has way more upside the Eskridge. Skyy Moore may be used in the slot. In college, he played 1/4th of his snaps in the slot. Moore's best-case scenario is he turns into a Golden Tate. Both receivers have similar frames where they are slightly short but are pure athletes with weight to make up for lack of height. Similarly, both have high football IQs, can be used in the slot, and have elite route running. If Moore gets the landing spot of a team that will utilize him in a Golden Tate role he can have a successful NFL career. It is always hard to determine players' NFL outcomes who come from smaller schools. This is when taking the model and comparing the results to former players becomes the most useful. Moore is a player that could move up and down these rankings significantly based on landing spot and draft capital.
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NFL Comparison- Dwayne Eskridge (Floor), Golden Tate (Ceiling)
8. George Pickens
College- Georgia
Age- 21.1
Height- 6'3
Weight- 200
40 Yard Dash- 4.47
Team Target Share- 15.4
College Dominator- 18.9
Breakout Age- 18.5
Draft Capital- Late 1st- Mid 2nd
Yards/Target- 9.3
Yards/Catch- 17.8
Route Running- 6
George Pickens is the mystery of this draft class. As a true freshman, George Pickens was the WR 1 on a Georgia team that made it to the College Football Playoffs. Then the next two seasons were filled with injuries for Pickens. He tore his ACL in 2020 and when he came back in 2021 was not the same player. Two years ago many thought Pickens was the best player in this class but with his injuries, he has fallen down on NFL scout's radars. Pickens has the elite size and athleticism my model is looking for. He also is very young and broke out early. This gives him elite-level upside. However, he has a very low floor too. Pickens has the least amount of production in college out of any players I evaluated in this model. This could be due to injuries but could also be a lack of talent. His route running grade was 6 so he is about average in that. It seems as if Pickens's skill's on the field are about average but his elite size and athleticism show that he has potential. If Pickens gets the draft capital he will get a significant boost. This will show NFL scouts believe in his potential and they believe he is better than the numbers show. Although if he falls deeper into the second round then that will show NFL scouts are concerned with his football ability and injury history. If he can develop, he could compare to Kenny Golladay due to his size and athletic profile. If he struggles to develop he may end up similar to N'Keal Harry as a guy who has the physical tools but can never translate to the NFL.
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NFL Comparison- N'Keal Harry (Floor), Kenny Golladay (Ceiling)
9. Christian Watson
College- North Dakota State
Age- 22.9
Height- 6'5
Weight- 208
40 Yard Dash- 4.36
Team Target Share- N/A
College Dominator- 44
Breakout Age- 20.3
Draft Capital- Late 1st/Early 3rd
Yards/Target-N/A
Yards/Catch-18.6
Route Running- 4
Similar to George Pickens Christian Watson is a huge mystery. Christian Watson has the best size compared to athleticism for a receiver in this draft class. Not many players ever have been 6'5 and run a 4.36 40-yard dash. This speed and size are so unusual for a player. Watson flew under the radar for most of his collegiate career until this year specifically at the draft combine. His draft capital is now likely to be there with him potentially going as high as the late first round. Although the concerns with Watson are his pure football skills. At North Dakota State which does not play the best competition, Watson never had a 1,000-yard season. Even with Trey Lance as his quarterback he never produced elite numbers. Watson is one of the older players in this class and had a late breakout. It can be argued he was only good when he was older and more physically gifted than his talent. Someone with his physical traits in the conference he played in should have produced better numbers. Watson also has been critiqued by scouts for lack of route running. I think that with Watson's lack of production he is a big question mark. Personally I do not see him ever being a number one receiver in the NFL. He could be a super talented deep threat with upside if he gets a good landing spot.
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NFL Comparison- Denzel Mims (Floor), Chase Claypool (Ceiling)
10. Khalil Shakir
College- Boise State
Age- 22.2
Height- 6'0
Weight- 196
40 Yard Dash- 4.43
Team Target Share- 32.2
College Dominator- 40.4
Breakout Age- 19.6
Draft Capital- 3rd/4th
Yards/Target- 9.629
Yards/Catch- 14.2
Route Running- 7
In my model Khalil Shakir checked most of the major thresholds. Shakir was the best player on his Boise State team and carried them offensively. He has above average size, speed, production, and route running. All that Shakir is lacking is the draft capital. Right now it looks like Shakir will be a 3rd or 4th round pick. He is my sleeper of this draft. He is a pure athlete who has football skills. Towards the end of my rankings a lot of players do not have both athleticism and football skills. It seems to only be one or the other. Shakir shows both. He projects to be a slot receiver in the NFL which would be perfect for him. His data all is very similar to Tyler Boyd. Tyler Boyd has been one of the best slot receivers in the NFL over the last few years. Shakir and Boyd are almost identical in all of the metrics I evaluated. The only difference is Shakir runs his 40 yard dash .15 seconds faster. If Shakir gets the right landing spot and can start in the slot for a team he could be one of the best slot receivers in the NFL in a few seasons. This will be a huge value in fantasy as he could easily get 7 targets a game in this role. Shakir is a great sleeper to keep an eye on in this draft.
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NFL Comparison- Faster Tyler Boyd
11. John Metchie
College- Alabama
Age- 21.7
Height- 5'11
Weight- 189
40 Yard Dash- 4.6
Team Target Share- 26.9
College Dominator- 22.9
Breakout Age- 21.1
Draft Capital- 3rd/4th
Yards/Target- 8.56
Yards/Catch- 11.9
Route Running- 8
John Metchie is one player who did not perform the best in our model. Right now I have him ranked a little low although I believe the right landing spot can change this. Metchie did not breakout until this past season although if you look at his situation this makes sense. He played at Alabama during their era of amazing WR talent. As a freshman you could not expect him to breakout on a team with Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Henry Ruggs. But then the year Ruggs leaves Metchie put up almost 1,000 yards in an offense with Smith and Waddle. Metchie does not have the elite physical tools some receivers in this class have. He is slow for a reciever. Although he does everything football wise right. He has great hands, and route running. He has experience against elite level defenses. He also is a slot receiver so he does not need to be the fastest guy. I think if Metchie can get drafted closer to the 3rd round to a team that would let him start in the slot he could have some decent fantasy value. Metchie will never be a star player but he is as reliable as they come. He reminds me of Russell Gage since both have the same size and athletic abilities. They both get the most out of there limited athleticism and are reliable options for their teams.
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NFL Comparison- Russell Gage.
12. Jalen Tolbert
College-South Alabama
Age- 23.1
Height- 6'1
Weight- 194
40 Yard Dash- 4.49
Team Target Share- 33.4
College Dominator- 51.2
Breakout Age- 20.5
Draft Capital- 3rd/4th
Yards/Target- 10.83
Yards/Catch- 16.1
Route Running- 4
Jalen Tolbert was very productive at South Alabama. His profile shows great production, size, and decent speed. Although Tolbert lacks route running and is significantly older than the other WRs. Tolbert is 23 years old which makes him at least a year older than the other receivers on this list. This could be why he was so dominant in college. Going into the NFL he will be 23.5 years old. This makes him older than some players who are in their second or third seasons. Tolbert also never played against any good competition in his college career. It may take him time to adjust to NFL defenses due to this. We will know shortly into his career if he is a good option or not. Since he is older, if he doesn't produce immediately I would not have faith in him to breakout later on. Or he could come in and dominate from the start as an older more experienced rookie like an Adam Theilen. It is hard to determine people who go to small schools how will produce in the NFL. They all typically put up numbers in college and have average combine performances but there is never a clear-cut answer for if they will produce in the NFL.
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NFL Comparison- John Hightower (Floor), Adam Theilen (Ceiling)
13. David Bell
14. Alec Pierce
15. Wan'Dale Robinson
16. Justyn Ross
17. Calvin Austin
18. Romeo Dobbs
Explanations For Thresholds
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Age- It is used to predict breakouts and put context to numbers. A player who is 23 and putting up great numbers is not as valuable as someone who is 20 putting up the same numbers. If someone is younger they producing great stats then they are playing above their age group. In addition, a player who is younger has more of a chance to break out in the NFL and will have a longer prime.
Height- Height is not a huge deal-breaker in this model. It can be used as a cherry on top of the other metrics. Height combined with athleticism and weight will give a player a huge boost. A player will never be high on rankings only because of their height. Height is more so used to knock down players who are too small. In this model players who have a height under 5'9 will take a huge hit because the NFL has not seen many receivers under 5'9 produce.
Weight- This measurement works in pair with height. In the model, if a player is too light for their height they will be lowered. If they are too heavy for their height they can also be lowered. The perfect ratio of height and weight will give players higher scores in the rankings.
40 Yard Dash- This is the standard test for speed. If a player is playing on the outside then their speed is crucial. This model likes to see players perform above average in speed. Unless they are playing in the slot. If a player is in the slot or underneath then their speed is less important since they are not running as far routes. Keenan Allen for example ran a 4.76 40-yard dash. This is a huge outlier compared to other receivers. Although Allen only runs short routes so his speed is not as crucial. If a player is slow and does not run short routes then they will be heavily penalized in this model.
Team Target Share- This shows how many targets a player gets on their college offense. It is good to see a player get around 20% of their college target share. If they can prove to get targets consistently in their college offense then it is more likely to translate to the NFL. This metric is better to look at than total targets since each college offense may be different. Some offenses may run the ball 50% of the time while some may pass 80% of the time. This metric shows only when balls are thrown who gets the percentage of their team's offense.
College Dominator- College Dominator is a metric that shows how much of a team's offensive production a player is responsible for. Historical data shows players who produce around 36% or more of their college offense are going to have a higher success rate in the NFL. This is scaled based on the competition a player plays with and against.
Breakout Age- Breakout age shows how a player performed against their competition at a young age. There is a correlation between an early college breakout and success in the NFL. If a player breaks out younger it shows they have pure talent and can produce with less experiance. If a player breaks out later it could be a concern that they can only produce when they are older than the competition. There are always exceptions and this number is just part of the weighted model.
Draft Capital- This is one of the biggest weighted data points in the whole model. A player drafted in the first round will have the team investment and be given the most opportunity. Of course, there are always busts but a hit rate for a player in the first round over any other round is night and day. Draft capital gives floors to many players. A landing spot is not used in the first model but that combined with draft capital will equate to around half of the weight in the model.
Yards/Target- This shows how consistent a player is when targeted. It also shows a player's ability to make big plays happen.
Yards/Catch- This works the same as yards per target. This metric is also used to show how explosive a player can be.
Route Running- The route running grade was determined by Pro Football Focus. I trust their grades since they have scouts critically watch each and every play. Their score out of 10 determines how advanced a player's routes are and how much space they create on them. This helps show the pure talent of a player that other metrics cannot.
My WR Prospect Model
