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Why Christian Yelich Should Change His Swing

By: Chris Greve

2/18/2022

Introduction

Christian Yelich in 2018 and specifically 2019 was one of the best hitters in the MLB. Yelich at the plate showed a unique skill set where he could hit for power, high average, and had great plate discipline. This all changed rapidly out of nowhere in 2020 when during the pandemic shortned MLB season Yelichs numbers dropped in every category. Yelich followed up his underperforming 2020 season with an equaly bad 2021 season. The only difference is in 2021 it was a full season of Yelich struggling. By the end of the season the former MVP was a liabilty for the Brewers and many fans wanted him to be benched during their playoff run. This brings up the question to everyone what happened to Yelich? How does someone go from being one of the elite hiters in the MLB to one of the worst hitters in just a few season. Reading other sources online many people will want to say its his fractured knee cap that he had in 2019 affecting his performance, or it is coming off the pandemic. Although after doing extensive research I believe that Christian Yelich's struggles are due to his change in swing and now lower launch angle. 

What is launch angle and why is it important?

The metric of launch angle is defined as the vertical angle that a ball leaves a player's bat. Every single ball that is hit has a launch angle. If the ball is straight up in the air then it will have a high launch angle if the ball is hit down into the ground then it will have a negative launch angle. The best approach for a hitter is to try and get a launch angle in the middle to produce line drives and keep their bat through the zone for the longest time possible. When a batter hits line drives they have a higher chance to get on base. Below are contact results and how they translate to success for all hitters in the MLB. 

  1. Medium Hit Line Drives: .719

  2. Soft Hit Line Drives: .664

  3. Hard Hit Line Drives: .632

  4. Hard Hit Ground Balls: .445

  5. Hard Hit Fly Balls: .235

  6. Medium Hit Ground Balls: .172

  7. Soft Hit Ground Balls: .125

  8. Soft Hit Fly Balls: .078

  9. Medium Hit Fly Balls: .065

From the statistics, it is clear that MLB hitters have the most success when they hit line drives. Now, what launch angle produces the most line drives? In a YouTube video from Simple Sabermetrics, they broke down launch angles to determine what launch angles produce the most line drives and what launch angles have the highest AVG WOBA. Below is the graph, it shows that the most productive launch angles are ones that produce line drives and launch angles in the range of 10-25 degrees. Some WOBAs in this range can reach as high as .800 which is amazing.

AVG WOBA  (Average Weighted On Base Percentage)- Statistic to measure a players offensive value by setting weights to results on offense. Each outcome has a different weight. For example a homerun is more valuable then a walk in this metric. In 2021 Bryce Harper lead the MLB with an AVG WOBA of .431. and the leagues average was .314.

Christian Yelich in 2019

Now after explaining launch angle we can use this to analyze the downfall of MLB superstar Christian Yelich. To start, Christian Yelich in 2019 was regarded as one of the best hitters in the MLB. In 2019 Yelich was 2nd in the NL MVP race and put up by far the best statistical season of his career.


Yelich’s stats in 2019 were-

At Bats- 489

Batting Average- .329

HRS- 44

RBIS- 97

SLG- .671

OPS- 1.100

WOBA- .442

WAR- 7.8

Average Exit Velo- 93.3 MPH

K%- 20.3%

Barrell %- 15.8%

Hard %- 52.8%

GB%-42.8%

FB%- 28.1%

LD%- 24.1 %

(Definitions of each stat can be found in the bottom paragraph)

​

Yelich put up these numbers with an average launch angle of 11.3 degrees. This is the highest launch angle of Yelich's career and it came at the same time where he had the best statistical season of his career. Yelich's 11.3-degree launch angle fits the 10-25 degree threshold that was discussed in the first paragraph. This means that Yelich's swing path resulted in him putting the ball on a line more times than not. An important piece to note from this season is Yelich's emergence in power. Prior to this season, Yelich had one season with 36 home runs and no seasons other than that with more than 21 home runs. Once Yelich modified his swing to a more upward angle in 2019 he began to hit more home runs. Yelich found the perfect swing path this season where he was hitting the ball hard more than half the time and it was in the air or on a line. Yelich when he hits the ball hard in the air was able to get home runs at one of the best rates in the league. Although after 2019 everything changed for Christian Yelich.

Christian Yelich in 2020

In 2020 Yelich was coming off of a fractured knee cap and playing in a pandemic shortened season. His stats at this point are not as important. Yet in this season everything trends down for Yelich and it shows his downfall going into the 2021 season. This is the season I believe Yelich started to adjust his swing in and it is apparent in the decline in stats.

Yelich’s stats in 2020 were-

At Bats- 200

Batting Average- .205

HRS- 12

RBIS- 22

SLG- .430

OPS- .786

WOBA- .343

WAR- .7

Average Exit Velo- 94

K%- 30.8%

Barrell %- 12.1%

Hard %- 56.6%

GB%- 51.6%

FB%- 19.4%

LD%- 26.6%

(Definitions of each stat can be found in the bottom paragraph)

​

Yelich put up these numbers with an average launch angle of 7.1 degrees. It is apparent there is a correlation between launch angle and the percentage of ground balls. In this season Yelich changed his swing path and as a result, was grounding out when he made contact about 10 percent more in 2020 than in 2019. In 2019 Yelich when making contact got home runs and doubles. This year it seemed to be a large number of ground outs and strikeouts and his stats declined significantly because of this. 

Christian Yelich in 2021

Now going into 2021 Yelich was fully healthy ready to bounce back and return to his 2019 form. Though, this was not the case. 

Yelich’s stats in 2021 were-

At Bats- 399

Batting Average- .248

HRS- 9

RBIS- 51

SLG- .373

OPS- .736

WOBA- .337

WAR- 1.5

Average Exit Velo- 91

K%- 23.8%

Hard %- 48.4%

Barrel %- 7.6%

GB%- 55%

FB%- 17%

LD%- 23.9%

(Definitions of each stat can be found in the bottom paragraph)

​

Yelich put up these numbers with an average launch angle of 2.8. In 2021 Yelich changed his swing even more and this resulted in him having an even worse season than in 2020. Yelich now is hitting the ball into the ground at one of the highest rates in the MLB. Yelich went from 44 home runs in 2019 to only 9 in 2021. This is solely because Yelich is not elevating the ball anymore.

Analysis

Christian Yelich has completely changed the angle of his swing and it is hurting his production. He went from a guy with a launch angle in the threshold that has the best WOBA to now a very low launch angle with a lesser WOBA associated with it. Yelich in 2021 had the best power and hitting stats of his career. With his launch angle at 11.3 degrees, he was able to have way fewer ground balls than in 2020 and 2021. Yelich instead of hitting ground balls was able to elevate pitches and turn them into home runs. Yelich changed his swing in 2020 and 2021 to an angle that is coming down on the baseball. When a hitter comes down on the baseball their bat is not in the zone as long as it is level or slightly upward. Another stat to point in Yelich's downfall is how much less he has barrelled the ball in 2020 and 2021. When a ball is barrelled it is a player hitting it on the sweet spot or center of their bat barrel and this produces the best contact. Barrel percentage is used to determine how many players contacted swings connect with the barrel. In 2020 Yelich had a barrel percentage of 12.1 % and in 2021 Yelich had a barrel percentage of 7.6%. In 2019 Yelich had a barrel percentage of 15.8%. When a player has a more level swing their barrel is more likely to make contact with the baseball. This can also be why Yelich is striking out more than normal in 2020 and 2021. If they are swinging downward as Yelich did in 2019 then they are hitting the ball typically off the end of the bat, jamming themselves, or missing the ball. Christian Yelich is one of the more physically gifted players in the MLB. He is 6'3 195 pounds and hits baseballs with one of the higher exit velocities in the MLB. Yelich has the elite tools to hit for power. He has also proven to be a power hitter in 2019 with 44 home runs. Yelich has the power to hit home runs but instead made his swing just pound the ball into the ground. He is still hitting the ball hard but a hard hit ball in the ground is not nearly as valuable as a hard-hit ball on a line or in the air. The large change in Yelich's launch angle could be one of the big reasons for his regress. A player with Yelich's talent could easily hit 40 plus home runs and still be productive at getting on base with a level swing. The data shows that Yelich changed his swing to a path that is giving him poor results. Below are side-by-side comparisons of his 2019 swing to his 2021 swing to visualize the difference he made.  

2019

2021

More level swing that is creating launch under the baseball. The ball is drove up in the air and resulted in a hard hit homerun.

This swing is giving a low launch angle and chops down on the baseball. The result of this swing was a groundout.

Another piece to Yelich's swing that I noticed was the slow stride Yelich has in 2021 compared to 2019. In 2019 Yelich's stride on fastballs from when he picks up his foot and puts it down ranged from .5 seconds to .68 seconds. In 2021 Yelich's stride would take around .7 seconds when he saw a fastball. With the slower stride, Yelich lifts his leg up more during his swing. When Yelich has the higher leg kick he gives himself less time to adjust and react to pitches. Also with the higher leg kick, it is likely to make Yelich timing harder to master. This could mean Yelich is guessing at the plate with his time and he will sometimes be late and miss the ball or be early and ground out. The shorter stride in 2019 provided Yelich with a better probability to be on time with the baseball since his feet are planted quicker. The difference can be seen in the two slow-motion videos below. When watching pay close attention to Yelichs leg kick and how much higher it is in 2021.

2019

2021

Yelich's swing has changed in many ways. We now know that his launch angle is an issue along with the bigger stride. Watching the film in general Yelich is getting on top of the ball far more now than he was before. This is not only because of his swing but can also be due to timing issues. In many of the videos, Yelich is early swinging and is in the process of rolling his wrists before the baseball gets to bat. When Yelich does this it lowers his launch angle significantly. What I believe Yelich needs to work on is first getting under the ball more. His normal swing on pitches in his zone should be on a launch angle path between 10-25 degrees. If Yelich hits the ball with this angle the probability of him getting hits is at its highest. Second, I think Yelich needs to get his timing under better control. When he is early on the ball by default he has a low launch angle. If Yelich can react to pitches better and be patient on his swing it can fix the launch angle. Last, Yelich should lower his stride in his swing. In 2019 Yelich had a smaller stride which allowed him to quickly swing and get the bat through the zone. Yelich should look back at the film and try to recreate his 2019 swing that made him an MVP-caliber player. With an increased launch angle and smaller stride, you can expect Yelich to take his game back to the level it once was. If continues to hit with a low launch angle and big stride though he may never be the power hitter he was in 2019.  The data shows there is a problem with Christian Yelich and with the combination of advanced data and film we may have found his solution.

Definitions of Stats-

Batting Average- Number of hits divided by a number of at-bats. 

RBI- (Runs batted in). If a player gets a hit this is the number of runs that score.

SLG- Total number of bases a player records in an at-bat. Used to represent power.

OPS- On-base percentage times slugging percentage. Used to represent both power and the ability to get on base.

WOBA- Statistic to measure a player's offensive value by setting weights to results on offense. Each outcome has a different weight. For example, a home run is more valuable than a walk-in metric. In 2021 Bryce Harper lead the MLB with an AVG WOBA of .431. and the leagues average was .314.

WAR- Wins above replacement. This stat determines how responsible a player is for their team's success. Found from this equation- (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win).

Average Exit Velo- The velocity in miles per hour a ball leaves a player's bat. 

K%- Percentage of at-bats a player strikes out

Hard %- Percentage of contacts a player hits the ball hard.

Barrel %- Percentage of contacts that hit the barrel or middle part of the baseball bat.

GB%- Percentage of contacts that are ground balls.

FB%- Percentage of contacts that are fly balls.

LD%- Percentage of contacts that are line drives.

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